Forgotten Money

When fall arrives and we dig out old jackets, we may find forgotten cash in a pocket—a small but pleasant surprise. Gen X, often overlooked by Boomers and Millennials, is much like that forgotten money: quietly making a bigger impact on the economy than many realize.

According to the Bank of America Institute report, Gen X accounted for 33% of US spending in 2022 despite making up only 27% of households. However, their spending is slowing as many scramble to catch up on retirement savings, having entered the workforce just as pensions phased out in favor of 401(k) plans.

Though I missed being part of Gen X by a year, I’m fascinated by how this generation, balancing aging parents and children, still has untapped economic potential—waiting to be rediscovered, much like forgotten money.

Countdown to Chaos

The Middle East inches closer to chaos as Israeli ground forces clashed with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, marking the first direct fighting with several casualties on both sides. Following Israel’s assassination of a Hezbollah leader, Iran launched a missile attack, sparking fears of a broader conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised retaliation, while President Biden has pushed for a proportional response, the possibility of a full-scale Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities remains on the table, sending shockwaves through global markets.

Oil prices jumped by over 5%, hitting $73 a barrel as fears of disrupting Iran’s oil infrastructure—a key part of global supply—intensified. Analysts warn that if the conflict escalates further, energy markets could see even more volatility, reminiscent of past oil crises. Meanwhile, Israel expanded evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, signaling the conflict could intensify.

Behind the scenes, there are growing concerns in Tehran about possible Israeli infiltration of Iran’s leadership. This is especially after reports that Hezbollah’s leader was warned to flee Lebanon just days before his death. As the fighting escalates and the stakes rise, the question remains: how far will this conflict go, and what will the global fallout be?

Pay to Stay Tuned

Starting next month, CNN, America’s most-visited news site, will test a paywall for some content. Readers who reach a limit must subscribe to digital access. This marks a significant change in how the site's 440 million monthly users interact. CNN follows outlets like The New York Times in navigating declining cable viewership and streaming's rising dominance as it navigates the growth of social media and streaming.

CEO Mark Thompson leads a broader restructuring, including layoffs and a digital shift. CNN's move toward a subscription model reflects its efforts to stay relevant in a media landscape that has seen nearly a third of cable subscribers cut the cord in recent years.

Winner Take All

OpenAI just pulled off one of the largest fundraising rounds ever, raking in $6.6 billion and hitting a sky-high $157 billion valuation. With backing from big players like Microsoft and NVIDIA, it’s clear that OpenAI is in a league of its own. This latest cash infusion is only the start. CEO Sam Altman has bold plans to reshape AI—and the world—with a vision that might cost trillions.

But there’s more to this story than just big numbers. OpenAI ensures its investors are all-in by asking them to avoid funding rivals like Anthropic or Elon Musk’s xAI. It’s a move straight out of Silicon Valley’s playbook: if you want to win, you must bet big and exclusive.

So, what’s the end game? Early backers like Vinod Khosla believe AI is set to revolutionize everything—boosting global GDP and changing how we live and work. Whether this all leads to a future we dream of or fear, OpenAI is ready to take charge.

Stuck at Work

Recent job market data shows a stagnant labor force. While wages rise and layoffs remain low, hiring rates have slowed since 2013. It's a paradox: It's a good time to keep your job and a tough time to find another since companies are cautious and uncertain about what the economy will do next.

The job-switching boom of recent years-when changing jobs meant big raises-has slowed dramatically. ADP data shows the pay premium for job changers has decreased from 8 percentage points in 2022 to just 1.9%. The Great Resignation has ended, and workers stay put because of limited opportunities and fierce job competition.

This "no-hire, no-fire" dynamic leaves the labor market frozen. With the Federal Reserve closely watching, the question remains: Will hiring pick up, or will layoffs eventually tip the balance?

💡 Core Wisdom

🧮 Core Count: 8,000

This is how many square meters of tree cover are lost per second worldwide.

🗓️ Flashback:

1883 - The Orient Express departs on its first official journey from Paris to Istanbul.

1957 - The Soviet Union launches Sputnik 1, the first artificial Earth satellite.

2006 - WikiLeaks was launched and founded by internet activist Julian Assange.

I'm glad we could get together here. Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow!

Fatih Taskiran