Wall Street's 2025 Fortune Cookies

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Your daily lens on the world starts here:

It's here again: Wall Street's famously timid crystal ball predicts an oh-so-typical 9% rise in the S&P 500 by 2025—in line with the 53% of forecasts that hover between 0% and 10%. Meanwhile, history reminds us that actual returns are far wilder than these polite predictions. (Over the past eight years, markets have exceeded their envisioned range.)

Why play it so safe? It's the same old story: It's better to be close to a tame miss than totally off-target when life throws a 30% swing. So, if you're considering making big financial moves, treat them like your favorite underdog—fun to root for, but not a final pick. (And yes, we'll cover these forecasting follies and more in an upcoming The Core Pro. Stay tuned!).

Don’t Snooze

Remember that crazy moment in 2021 when your coworkers and cousin's cat discussed lethal playground games? Squid Game is back on December 26, and Netflix is betting that lightning will strike twice. Under enough stress, creator Hwang Dong-hyuk lost more than a few teeth (literally) and still filmed Seasons 2 and 3 back-to-back. Because, apparently, taking a breather isn't part of his game plan.

With 2.8 billion hours of watch time for the first season, Netflix is determined not to let this sequel slip through the cracks, especially with a tie-in video game dropping the same week. High stakes (again), cutthroat (again), and more pastel jumpsuits and twisted children's games are on the way. All aboard or game over.

Tele-GRAM Slam

Telegram has had a year straight out of a movie script—billions in debt, an arrested founder, and global crackdowns on extremist content. Yet somehow, the popular messaging app will close 2024 in the black for the first time.

Think "subscription revenue" meets "crypto windfalls," rolled into a platform nearly a billion people use (and advertisers tentatively adore). Of course, a little turbulence remains. But, over 750 content moderators were hired, and a new (yet not aggressive) ad strategy has helped Telegram quietly become a legitimate business—just in time to keep Durov and the company alive.

Sleepless No More

Fasten your seatbelts (or unstrap those headgear nightmares): The FDA has approved Zepbound, the very first OSA pill—and it's thanks to a weight-loss compound that keeps airways open, too. In clinical trials, Zepbound reduced body weight by 20% and averted up to 25 sleep interruptions per hour. Translation: that's a serious deal for millions suffering from nightly gasps and fatigue.

Sure, this two-for-one miracle will still be accompanied by insurance drama. But Zepbound might be the other breath of fresh air millions who suffer from obesity and sleep apnea need. If that’s not worth celebrating, I don’t know what is.

💡 Core Wisdom

📸 Lens to Life

Hopeful Images from 2024.

🧮 Core Count: 13

The number of people who die from vending machines every year.

🗓️ Flashback:

1783 - US General George Washington resigns his military commission as Commander-in-Chief of the Army to Congress.

1888 - After an argument with Paul Gauguin, Vincent van Gogh cuts off his left ear with a razor and sends it to a female courtesan.

1913 - US President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law - creating the central banking Federal Reserve System.

1920 - Partition of Ireland occurs with the passage of the Government of Ireland Act / Home Rule Act.

1928 - NBC establishes a permanent coast-to-coast radio network.

1954 - Dr. Joseph E. Murray performed the first human kidney transplant at Peter Bent Brigham Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts.

1958 - Frank Borman, Jim Lovell, and William Anders became the first to orbit the Moon aboard Apollo 8.

I'm glad we could get together here. Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow!

Fatih Taskiran